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Volcano Tsunami Risk from Eruption in the Svartsengi Volcanic System in Iceland?

A volcano eruption in the Svartsengi volcanic system in Iceland captured widespread attention from 18 to 21 December 2023. The eruption took place close to Sundhnúkagígar, about four kilometres northeast of Grindavík. The eruption occurred after the area has been monitored and evacuated since 10 November 2023, due to seismic activity and the formation of a dyke intrusion at a depth of 3-5 km.  The latest report from the Icelandic Met Office (IMO, Iceland) on 22 December, states that the fissure eruption at Sundhnúksgígar ended on 21 December. This indicates a temporary cessation of eruptive activity. However, according to GPS and satellite-based measurements, ground uplift in the Svartsengi region was apparent immediately after the eruption began on the evening of 18 December. Initial measurements show that the rate of uplift is greater than before the eruption occurred. This signifies that magma accumulation continues unabated beneath Svartsengi. This development will likely lead to another dike intrusion and, ultimately, another volcanic eruption.

The volcanic activity has raised concerns about the potential for a volcano-generated tsunami. The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the North Eastern Atlantic Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/NEAMTWS) continues to monitor the situation through its Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) and expert networks. Mr Halldór Björnsson, Coordinator of Atmospheric Research at the IMO, emphasized prior to the eruption, “an eruption in Grindavík is not likely to extend into the sea, the bottom topography poses no risk of submarine landslides, therefore, the risk of a tsunami in that area is extremely low”.    

Since 21 December, nearly 90 earthquakes were recorded in the Grindavík, Sundhnúksgígar, and Svartsengi regions. The largest earthquake was M1.6 West of Hagafell. Presently, seismicity levels are low but variable on a daily basis. The main driving force behind these events is the spreading of the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates. These forces literally tear the ground apart as the plates move in opposite directions. The empty space between the plates is usually filled with magma rising from the Earth’s mantle, potentially triggering volcanic activity such as the one witnessed at Sundhnúksgígar.

volcanic eruption grindavik

Volcanic activity on 18 December 2023 at the southern end of the fissure at Sundhnúksgíga, Iceland. Source: Icelandic Met Office.

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Lessons Learnt during Exercise Indian Ocean Wave 2023 Webinar

IOWAVE 2023 LOGO SQUARE TYPEThe UNESCO-IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWMS) decided to conduct Exercise Indian Ocean Wave 2023 (IOWave23) during October 2023. Different scenarios for tsunami generation were exercised on 4, 11, 18 and 25 October. Recognising that the outcomes from IOWave23 will contribute to a better understanding of the gaps in tsunami warning chains, as well as enhance tsunami preparedness across the Indian Ocean Region, the ICG/IOTWMS Secretariat and Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Centre (IOTIC) jointly organised the “Lessons Learnt during Exercise Indian Ocean Wave 2023” webinar during 12-13 December 2023.

Opening remarks were provided by Professor Dwikorita Karnawati, Chair of the ICG/IOTWMS, and Mr Rick Bailey, Head of the ICG/IOTWMS Secretariat. Ms Weniza, Chair of the ICG/IOTWMS Task Team on Exercise IOWave23, provided an overview of the exercise. Ms Suci Anagrah, Chair of the ICG/IOTWMS Working Group 3 on Tsunami Ready Implementation, spoke about the importance of the UNESCO-IOC Tsunami Ready Recognition Programme. All stressed the importance of developing and maintaining community awareness and preparedness for the tsunami threat. While fortunately tsunamis are relatively rare, exercises are accordingly required to ensure warning systems are fully operational and effective should a tsunami occur.

iowave23 webinar

Photo: Participants during Exercise IOWave23 held during 4-25 October 2023.

The webinar focused on Member States’ participation in the exercise, with country presentations from Australia, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Iran, Madagascar, Mauritius, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Seychelles, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. Panel discussions were also held on: a) New Tsunami Service Provider (TSP) products for non-seismic generated tsunami, b) Community involvement in IOWave exercises; c) Exercising UNECO-IOC Tsunami Ready indicators; and d) Recommendations for the next IOWave Exercise.

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Tonga improves Tsunami Early Warning System on World Tsunami Awareness Day 2023

Ms Mami Mizutori, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction and Head of United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNDRR) joined the Government of Tonga in the commemoration of the World Tsunami Awareness Day (WTAD) 2023 (WTAD23) in Nukualofa, Tonga on 20th October 2023.

UN SR SG DRR Mizutori at Tonga drill Oct 2023

The WTAD23 event commenced with the unveiling of a newly installed Tsunami Information Board at Apifo’ou College. The Tsunami information board serves to inform the school community and nearby communities on the risk posed by a tsunami threat to their community and provides actionable advice on what needs to be undertaken in preparedness and response to a tsunami threat on their nearby coastline. The installation of the tsunami information board was supported by UNDRR in collaboration with UNESCO/IOC Tsunami Resilience Section and the National Disaster Risk Management Office (NDMRO) of Tonga.

This event was followed by a Tsunami Evacuation Drill Exercise for two schools- Apifo’ou College and `Ahopanilolo Technical Institute. A total of 1500 students and teachers participated including response agencies.

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Launch of Phase 2c of the project "Strengthening Tsunami Early Warning in the North-West Indian Ocean Region through Regional Cooperation"

The tsunami inundation and evacuation mapping phase of the UNESCAP-funded project on “Strengthening tsunami early warning in the North-West Indian Ocean region through regional cooperation” was launched on 15 November 2023 via an online webinar.  The project involves India, Iran and Pakistan with Oman and United Arab Emirates participating on a self-funded basis. The new phase focuses on capacity building through the development of tsunami inundation and evacuation maps for pilot communities of the North-West Indian Ocean Member States. The project serves as a platform for the UNESCO-IOC Tsunami Ready Recognition Programme and the United Nations initiative of “Early Warning for All” by 2027.

The webinar was jointly organised by UNESCO-IOC’s Secretariat for the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWMS) and Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center (IOTIC). Opening remarks were provided by Prof. Dwikorita Karnawati, Chair of the ICG/IOTWMS, Mr Rick Bailey, Heado of UNESCO-IOC's Secretariat for the ICG/IOTWMS, and Ms Temily Baker, Programme Management Officer at United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), with closing remarks provided by Dr. Mohammad Mokhtari, Chair of the ICG/IOTWMS Regional Working Group for the North West Indian Ocean. Around 35 attendees, mostly the from North-West Indian Ocean Member States of India, Iran, Oman, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates, attended in the project launch.

2cLaunch

Photo: Participants at launch of Phace 2c of the project "Strengthening tsunami early warning in the North-West Indian Ocean region through regional cooperation", 15 November 2023.

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Fighting Inequality for a Resilient Future on World Tsunami Awareness Day 2023

To commemorate the World Tsunami Awareness Day 2023, the webinar on Fighting Inequality for a Resilient Future [in the context of tsunamis], was jointly organised by the UNESCO-IOC Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center, Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWMS WG-1 and WG-3), and the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of Indonesia (BMKG). The event attracted over 100 participants with many from the Indian Ocean region.

Mrs. Maki Katsuno-Hayashikawa, the Director of UNESCO Jakarta, and Prof. Ir. Dwikorita Karnawati, the Chair of ICG/IOTWMS and Head of BMKG, provided opening remarks. Experts from the Indian Ocean region shared their experiences on a) How to create accessible tsunami early warning for all; b) Research, development, and implementation plan for the Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme; c) Early warning for remote populations from Maldives; and d) Early warning for people with disabilities from Indonesia. BMKG announced preliminary plans for the second Global Tsunami Symposium to be held in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, during November 2023. Closing remarks were provided by Mr. Rick Bailey, Head of the ICG/IOTWMS Secretariat.

Wowok23

Photo: On 4 May 2000, Mr. Wowok saved lives in Palam Village, Banggai Island, Indonesia by alerting member of his community to the tsunami after seeing the incoming wave. Despite being deaf and speech impaired, he used his arms to show that a tsunami was coming and get people to evacuate to higher ground. Right before the six-meter tsunami wave hit, the villagers reached the hill, safe from harm.

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Exercise Indian Ocean Wave 2023 Strengthens Tsunami Preparedness

The ocean-wide tsunami exercise Indian Ocean Wave 2023 (IOWave23) was conducted during 4-25 October 2023. The exercise consisted of three tsunami scenarios generated by earthquakes in the Andaman, Makran, and Java trenches, and one further scenario of a tsunami generated by a volcanic eruption on Heard Island in the Southern Ocean. All 25 active Member States of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWMS) were separately placed under tsunami threat during one or more scenarios.

At least 19 ICG/IOTWMS Member States including Australia, Bangladesh, France (Indian Ocean Territories), India, Indonesia, Iran, Madagascar, Maldives, Mauritius, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Seychelles, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, and United Arab Emirates participated in one or more scenarios. Countries activated their national tsunami warning chains and Standard Operating Procedures with the participation of National Tsunami Warning Centres (NTWCs), Disaster Management Organisations (DMOs), other relevant authorities, first responders, and media.

IOWAVE 2023 LOGO SQUARE TYPE

IOWave23

Community evacuation drills were conducted in at least seven countries, including India, Indonesia, Iran, Maldives, Mauritius, Sri Lanka, and United Arab Emirates. The exercise focused on inclusivity (all genders, those with disabilities, youth, and elderly) connected with the central theme of World Tsunami Awareness Day 2023 of “Fighting Inequality for a Resilient Future”.

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